Executive Summary
This white paper is about the challenges and opportunities in establishing an innovation ecosystem related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP). It provides both an analysis of why investment in UAP-related ventures has been difficult and a possible roadmap for expanding research and entrepreneurial activity around the scientific and technological advances that UAP could represent.
UAP, previously known as UFOs (unidentified flying objects), have been the subject of increasing media coverage over the past few years, frequently in mainstream news outlets such as CNN and Fox News. This increasing exposure is the result of efforts of military and intelligence whistleblowers, members of Congress, prominent academics, journalists, and organizations like NASA. Recent media attention has led government officials to tacitly and sometimes directly acknowledge the presence of unidentified craft in US airspace and territo- rial waters. (For more details on recent events, see the section “A Brief History of Recent UAP Developments.”)
Breakthroughs in UAP-related science and technology could revolutionize many of our existing industries, including aviation, space, defense, energy, medicine, communication, maritime operations, and materials engineering. Because of the wide potential of this technology, UAP represent an opportunity that could reshape the future of humankind as much as the devel- opment of the telephone, the automobile, the airplane, the rocket, or the personal computer. (For more on applications and industries, see the section “UAP Investment: Potential Opportunities.”)
While innovation was historically funded initially by government and wealthy patrons, this has evolved in modern innovation ecosystems, the most visible of which is in Silicon Valley. Many of the largest companies in the world by market capitalization have been funded this way. This ecosystem includes institutional investors such as venture capitalists, research institutions like Stanford University, and established companies that provide both talent and exits for new startups. However, a mature innovation ecosystem is not only about capital, but also about providing roadmaps to entrepreneurs and investors who wish to participate in the process of founding new companies. (For more on modern venture capital and startups, see the section “Background on Innovation Ecosystems.”)
This white paper explores whether private investment in new startups, in conjunction with government and large corporations, could play a significant role in expanding research into and launching ventures and products based on UAP-related technology. I argue that rather than establish one type of funding or just one organization, a new innovation ecosystem needs to be established with multiple types of funding, multiple players, and multiple avenues for entrepreneurs and investors to support UAP-related research and product development.
However, UAP also present unique investment challenges that other emerging industries may not have faced. Despite strong interest in this subject within both the federal government and the general public, many in our scientific institutions and existing innovation ecosystems like Silicon Valley remain skeptical about the topic in general. This is because of a stigma long associated with UFOs. Furthermore, UAP-related technology may require not only invest- ment in engineering of new products and technology, but also breakthroughs in our under- standing of the physical world. This may require larger investments and more patient capital than typical venture capitalists—or even existing deep tech investors—have the appetite for. For this reason, I introduce the term frontier tech for technology ventures that simultaneously carry science, engineering, product, and market risks. Finally, the national security implica- tions of UAP make this a sensitive area subject to overclassification and geopolitical concerns. (For more on these challenges, see the section “The Unique Challenges and Opportunities of UAP.”)
To date, efforts to understand UAP-related technology and science has primarily been limited to two extremes: (1) the government relying on aerospace contractors in classified settings, or (2) isolated garage inventors and independent scientists with limited or nonexistent financial or institutional backing. To unleash the true power of entrepreneurship and market forces, this paper proposes unique investment models aimed not just at funding companies but at bringing the “best and brightest” minds to bear on the scientific, technical, and business challenges.
While the origin of UAP is an ongoing source of speculation, many UAP experts have de- termined that at least some of the reports cannot be attributed to prosaic sources such as balloons, seagulls, or hallucinations. In official congressional hearings, witnesses have stated under oath that some UAP appear to be actual technology, which may not be from human sources or adversaries such as China or Russia. (For more on government programs such as AARO, UAPTF, AAWSAP, AATIP, and congressional testimony, see the section “Brief His- tory of Recent UAP Developments”). The observables—summaries of the unusual perfor- mance characteristics of some UAP (such as instant acceleration, antigravity, etc.) compiled by Department of Defense (DOD) and intelligence officials in these programs—seem to imply that they represent technologies leaps and bounds over our current technology. While this has led to more exotic theories for UAP (namely those that involve a nonhuman intelligence, or NHI, presence on Earth), this paper doesn’t attempt to choose from different theories of the origin of UAP. Rather, we take the position that if the reported observables are valid, even for some small fraction of UAP, then they represent significant technoscientific innovations. (For more on these two topics, see the section “Origin and Observables.”)
Such innovations, which are not part of the public discussion of mainstream scientists or aerospace engineers, could revolutionize several industries and usher in a new type of industri- al revolution. However, this will require not just funding but an innovation ecosystem around UAP-related research and ventures. More specifically, this white paper explores the challenges and opportunities of building such an ecosystem by attempting to answer the following questions:
1. What are the general areas of potential private and public investment in research and development related to UAP technology?
2. What industries could be affected or revolutionized by these investments?
3. What makes investment in UAP research and new ventures difficult?
4. Who are the stakeholders that could influence and participate in such an ecosystem?
5. What structure could work best for encouraging both research and entrepreneurial activity?
6. What actions could be taken in the short term, medium term, and long term to build such an innovation ecosystem?
To answer these questions, this white paper proposes several interlocking segments of investment to build a well-rounded UAP innovation ecosystem. This structure seeks to provide opportunities for existing stakeholders, such as departments of the government and large aerospace companies, to participate. More importantly, we seek to build a UAP ecosystem that includes and encourages individual entrepreneurs, professional scientists, private and public research institutions, garage inventors, citizen scientists, and private investors.
The four proposed segments of investment (detailed further in the section “Structuring Investment and Building an Innovation Ecosystem for UAP”) are as follows:
1. Research Funding. Initially, this would be via a clearinghouse to connect UAP research funds from public and private sources to researchers. Then, long term, this would expand available research funding through the creation of one or more UAP research funds and/or UAP research institutes.
2. Innovation Prizes. A new UPRIZE, modeled after the innovation prizes of the early nine- teenth and twentieth centuries, combined with aspects of the more recent XPRIZEs such as the Google Lunar X Prize and the Ansari X Prize, would allow for expansion of investment in private ventures through a multiplier effect.
3. Frontier Tech Incubator. I refer to this model as a halfway house that provides both resources (science labs) and patient capital to encourage technoscientific innovation, positioned between pure research and normal industry commercialization funds.
4. Venture Capital and Private Equity. With the establishment of the previous three segments, this should allow existing venture capital and private equity funds to participate in UAP technol- ogy ventures without the stigma or risks that currently exist.
In more practical terms, the goal of these segments, beyond establishing a UAP innovation ecosystem, is to provide roadmaps for key stakeholders, such as investors and entrepreneurs, who may not have clear guidance on how to engage with the UAP topic.
While the challenges to innovating and commercializing UAP-related technology are signifi- cant (and may even seem insurmountable in the short term), by taking a longer-term view, we can discern that they may be no greater than the leaps achieved in modern times. For example, a human of 1860, offered a glimpse of today’s everyday technologies—such as self-driving automobiles, powered flight via jet engines, reusable rockets, genetic engineering, and computers—might also conclude that the challenges to achieve such a future are insurmountable.
For this reason, in this white paper, I take the position that the opportunity represented by in- vesting in UAP research and development is not a short-term prospect. By taking a long-term view, investment in this topic in the coming years and decades could not only revolutionize life on Earth but also represent humanity’s best hope of eventually becoming a multiplane- tary species. This vision relies on going beyond existing methods of propulsion and lift, such as rocket engines.